The following posts will track my progress through MBA 617 Organizational Theory. This is my final semester of grad school and the joy and excitement I feel is sure to leak out in the compositions.
This document is the
culmination of individual research on Royal Dutch Shell (RDS). It combines
findings from the following related work.
Efficiency
and Effectiveness (DiGloria, 2019): a discussion of the two components from a
management perspective.
Environmental
Complexity (DiGloria, 2019): a review of
the operating environment and its demands.
Organizational
Complexity (DiGloria, 2019): a working organizational chart that seeks to
evaluate the match between organization design and the operating environment.
SWOT
Analysis (DiGloria, 2019): an assessment of RDS’s strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats.
While much of this document is repurposed from previous research, it is unique in that it presents a problem. This problem is likely one of the most important long-range macro issues facing Shell today. To solve the problem three solutions are proposed and their practical application is examined. The expectation is that with the proper strategy and execution, Shell will continue to be a dominant operator in the energy sector.
History
Shell began in 1833 in a small
antique shop in London. Shell was named when founder Marcus Samuels started
importing exotic shells from the Far East for resale (“Company History,” n.d.).
Marcus Samuels passed the company to his sons, who began to experiment with the
transport of bulk oil using steamships. Now 185 years later, Royal
Dutch Shell (RDS) is a publicly-traded company headquartered in The Hague,
Netherlands. Shell is engaged in the exploration, development, production,
refining, and marketing of oil and natural gas. RDS also manufactures chemicals
and has a business interest in alternative energy ventures (“What we do,”
2019). They are a dominant operator in the oil and gas industry, with a market
valuation of $42.3bn (Muspratt, 2019).
Goals and Mission Statement
Mission
“Shell’s
purpose is to power progress, together with more and cleaner energy solutions.
We believe that rising standards of living for a growing global population are
likely to continue to drive demand for energy, including oil and gas, for years
to come. At the same time, technology changes, and the need to tackle climate
change means there is a transition underway to a lower-carbon, multisource
energy system (“Royal Dutch Shell,” 2019).”
Vision
“To make a difference through our
people, a team of dedicated professionals who value our customers, deliver on
our promises, and contribute to sustainable development (“Royal
Dutch Shell,” 2019).”
Social Responsibility
Research indicates that
Shell is one of the most responsible and future-oriented oil companies
operating today (Nastu, 2010). The company acknowledges the changing
environment of energy production and consumption and is actively restructuring
to facilitate this change. Additionally, Shell is actively supporting green
initiatives in line with its vision of sustainable development (Frynas, 2010).
Operational
Strategy
Shell’s operational
strategy is to integrate complementary systems and processes to increase
efficiency (“Royal Dutch Shell,” 2019). This efficiency allows Shell to
allocate resources to research and development. Shell prides itself in financial
and operational management that has allowed it to navigate the competitive and
sometimes volatile energy market. More recently, Shell has been positioning
itself for a peak in oil production and demand between 2020 and 2040 (Ball,
2018). To prepare for this, Shell has been selling assets that have a high cost
of production and repositioning itself as a supplier of electricity (Ball,
2018). This willingness to alter its business model shows awareness and
humility about a changing market.
Macro-view
Royal
Dutch Shell is an integrated oil and gas company (IOC) with 83,000 employees
operating more than 52 subsidiaries in 70 countries. IOC’s operate in the
upstream and downstream oil market. Operations include discovery, extraction, production,
refining, and distribution (Business Dictionary, n.d.). Shell is the second
largest IOC behind Sinopec China. RDS operates in a highly competitive market
with competition from three types of oil and gas entities: integrated, private,
and national.
Shell’s four business divisions are
organized by competency.
Projects & Technology: integration of
technologies, software development, and management
Integrated Gas & New Energy: alternative
fuels, wind power, electric charging stations
Stakeholders
A
company as large as RDS has an impact on many different stakeholders. One might
even say a company this big has the general public in its stakeholder group. For
the sake of discussion, I have reduced the list to its primary constituents.
Government
(Countries, States, Cities): Locations, where Shell operates, will have
environmental and regulatory oversight. In some smaller countries, RDS creates
a partnership for its operations. An example of this is the oil production
partnership with Brunei, and the security contract Shell pays to the government
of Nigeria. In more stable regions of the world, the stakeholder relationship
will be more focused on environmental impact. There is also financial interest.
In 2018 RDS paid $5.8bn in royalties to various government entities (“Payments
to,” 2019).
Creditors
and Investors: Shell issues debt most commonly in the form of corporate bonds. Currently,
RDS has $49.75bn in outstanding bonds with maturity dates ranging from 2019 –
2045 (“Bonds and credit,” 2019).
Suppliers:
This includes the service and supply industry that exists around oil
production. It may be anything from vehicle fleet management to parts manufacturing.
Communities
and Employees: Many communities around the world rely on RDS for employment. Additionally,
RDS supports communities through sponsorship of social initiatives.
Shareholders:
restricted stockholders are usually executives and directors affiliated with
the company, preferred stockholders, common stockholders (NYSE: RDS.A)
Organizational
Structure
As
shown in the organizational
chart, RDS uses a global matrix organizational structure
based on seven executive branches that support the four business divisions previously
mentioned. These divisions are the top level of the reporting structure for
Shell’s subsidiaries. Subsidiary companies are used to meet the specific
geographic and operational demands of Shell’s diverse business operations. Each
subsidiary has an executive structure that loosely matches that of the
corporate structure. This model has the advantage of streamlining the flow of
information to the appropriate business divisions but requires each subsidiary
to report up multiple channels. The other three executive branches support the
overall function of the business: Finance, Legal, and Human Resources. This
primarily mechanistic structure facilitates the organization of a very large
operation. Shell’s use of subsidiaries provides operational flexibility, which
it might not otherwise have.
Corporate Culture
Shell’s stated organizational
values are as follows.
“Shell’s core values are honesty, integrity,
and respect for people. The Shell General Business Principles, Code of Conduct,
and Code of Ethics help everyone at Shell act in line with these values and
comply with relevant laws and regulations. We also strive to maintain a diverse
and inclusive culture within our company. (“Our Values,”
n.d.)”
Business Leaders
Shell’s
executive team is made up of industry professionals. The general impression
from reading their bios is that they operate with a high degree of
professionalism and seriousness (“Leadership,” n.d.). Some of this is due to the
size of the company and how it is affected by global events. To help explain
this, consider the recent drone attack on one of Saudia Arabia’s oil refineries
that resulted in millions of dollars of losses (Rasmi, 2019). In addition to
the requirements of operating a conventional business, RDS has international security
and political factors to consider. Finally, Shell’s primary business is extracting
and refining fuel. This suggests a mechanical process environment with multiple
controls (Daft, 2016). Controlling errors and worker safety is a top priority.
This may contribute to an overall sense of seriousness within the company.
Public Perspective
As with
most oil companies, Shell receives mixed reviews from the general public. Some
editorials have described RDS as “a planetary death machine” (Monbiot, 2019). Other
public coverage paints RDS as one of the best of the oil-producing lot when it
comes to considering the environment and preparing for climate change (Souza,
2016). Forbes ranks RDS #66 in the list of best places for women to work and
#166 in diversity employers (“#227 Royal,” 2019). Shell is likely to continue
attracting a great deal of differing opinions and criticism.
Employee Perspective
RDS
employees are active enough on job posting sites that it was possible to get a
representative sampling of how current and previous employees perceive the
company.
Employees
ranking RDS on comparably.com gave it an overall B+ rating. This put it in the
top 35% of 1,292 similar companies in the US (“Royal Dutch,” 2019).
Glassdoor.com had a much larger sampling of 4700 reviews, where 78% of
employees would refer the company to a friend, and 91% approve of the CEO (“Shell
Reviews,” 2019). Positive comments mentioned the work environment, and negative
comments consistently mentioned bureaucracy and slow decision making. This is
not a surprise given the size and complexity of the organization.
Review of the Culture
The data
seems to suggest that RDS is a reasonably good employer with a professional and
somewhat serious corporate culture. They must monitor global political events,
and their actions have a widespread impact. Sometimes the subject of heavy
criticism, Shell seems to be aware of its responsibility to the environment and
is making some effort to show social responsibility.
Environment
Competitive Environment
RDS
operates in a highly competitive market with competition from three types of
oil and gas entities: integrated, private, and national.
Integrated
oil and gas companies (IOC’s) operate in the upstream oil market, and
operations include discovery, production, refining, and distribution (Business
Dictionary, n.d.).
Private
oil and gas firms specialize in exploration and production.
National
oil companies control 90% of proven oil reserves and have state backing.
Nationally owned companies add the complication that they may be politically
motivated operators.
Green
initiatives (discussed later) increase competition by offering consumers
alternative energy sources.
Regulatory
Environment
City and State Laws
RDS’s
international presence is managed through diversified compliance to local city
and state ordinances. This is usually managed by subsidiaries which are wholly
subject to the laws and regulations where they operate.
Federal Regulation
Shell
is subject to Federal laws that vary by region. In the US, the EPA regulates
and sets policies for environmental impacts. The Interstate Oil and Gas
Commission sets policy for drilling and production. There are also government
regulations outlined in the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Safe
Drinking Water Act (“EPA proposes,” 2019). These were designed to regulate
different portions of the oil and gas industry. Additionally, the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission regulates pipelines and transportation (FERC,
n.d.).
In
less developed locations such as Nigeria, these sorts of measures do not exist
as explicitly as they do in the US (Mandler, 2018). In these cases, Shell’s
internal policies, as well as Nigerian laws, will govern. Global groups such as
the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers work with local
governments to form policy (IOGP, n.d.)
Economic Conditions
Recession or Growth
Shell
operates in over 70 countries. As such, there is rarely a micro-economic factor
that they do not feel in some way. Conversely their size insulates them from
some of the smaller economic trends. Instead, RDSd must monitor GDP in larger
economies such as the US and Eurozone as well as China. Changes in worldwide
demand, as well as international political tensions, may affect production
levels (“Royal Dutch,” n.d.).
Unemployment rate
Unemployment
rates vary by country, and as a result, Shell may be affected by different
economic factors in each region it operates in. RDS has been reducing its stake
in underperforming assets. Along with this, Shell’s workforce has shrunk from
93,000 in 2013 to 82,000 in 2018. This is the result of lower oil prices and an
abundance of supply (“Royal Dutch,” n.d.).
Business Growth
Shell’s
financial performance has been steady but not based on a growth outlook.
Rather, Shell has been streamlining operations to increase free cash flow and
position itself for an increasingly competitive energy market (“Strategy,”
2019).
Organizational Problem
Peak Oil Demand
The concept of peak oil originated
as a factor of production. Namely, the point at which the oil reserves of the world
would reach a maximum volume of extraction. After this peak, it was surmised
that the world would slowly run out of oil. With the introduction of new
drilling and fracking technology, those theories had to be dismantled. The
concept is now one of consumption demand (Lynch, 2018). Shell’s research team
agrees and expects demand to peak between 2020 and 2040 after which there will
be a transition to electric power (Ball, 2018). It is encouraging that Shell is
aware of this, but it remains unseen how well they can truly adapt to this
change. Also, the variability of future demand is unknown, and the majority of
Shell’s operations still rely on oil production and distribution. Any rapid
change would be too challenging for Shell to manage.
Critical Evaluation
Innovation
There is a case to be
made that RDS knows the value of innovation. 185 years in business, and many
adaptations and expansions have proven Shell’s ability to look forward and make
adjustments. However, technology has increased the rate and scope of innovation
(Daft, 2016). Innovation is now a continuous endeavor. Shell has the infrastructure,
resources, and likely time to shift out of natural gas and oil production into alternative
energy. The problem is the rate and variability of this change. Shell must
innovate in lockstep with the market. This is harder than it sounds when you
consider the size of the operation as well as competition from other producers.
Natural Gas and Oil
Analysts expect natural gas and oil prices
to remain low for the foreseeable future. While Shell has been divesting itself
of some natural gas assets, low prices set against the high cost of production
may affect profitability as well the price Shell can get when attempting to
recoup losses on natural gas fields (Orland, 2019). Despite its dominant financial position and
substantial 2018 profits, Shell’s Q2 profit surprised to the downside (25%) on
lower oil prices and weaker demand (Agnitori, 2019). This highlights the
connection between the market price environment and profitability. Natural gas
production represents the largest potential liability to RDS’s profits.
Alternative energy
Shell’s ability to compete in the
alternative energy market will have a very direct impact on whether or not the
company survives a future decline in oil demand. Investment in alternatives is
expensive and requires ongoing capital infusion. To help put this in
perspective, Shell recently signed a deal with Ionity to provide 500 charging
points across Europe by 2020 (“EDF Renewables,” 2018). This deal represents only 500 of 43,000 Shell
fuel stations. Because of the size and timing component of the change, Shell
must walk a line between risk and relevance. To stay relevant, they must stay
solvent and actively participate in the global transition to electric power.
Recommendations: Three interrelated
approaches
The following
recommendations are intentionally interrelated. Rather than present alternative
solutions to the same problem, these approaches may be implemented in tandem. A
multi-pronged approach is often useful for tackling complex and broad issues. Also,
these recommendations are based on RDS’s life cycle stage. The size and
complexity of RDS indicate it is in the elaboration phase. This means the
company is mature and the way forward is likely through revitalization or
streamlining and small-business thinking (Daft, 2016). The recommendations
below are followed by an implementation section that explains the concepts in
more detail.
Recommendation
#1: Transformation plan
Companies that are as
large as RDS commonly lack the ability to be nimble in rapidly changing
environments (Daft, 2016). One change at the corporate level may affect some or
all of the 50+ subsidiaries in different ways. Also, the problem of peak oil
demand implies that a shift is needed in how resources are allocated. Where
should reductions be made first? How should they be timed? This recommendation
will facilitate change in a proactive rather than a reactive manner. A transformation
plan is a change forecasting model that is adjusted by the introduction of new
information. Changes in oil demand and supply, as well as analysts forecasts,
will change the outputs. The model is a roadmap of how, when, and where the
company will start the transformation to become a dominant supplier of alternative
energy. As the market changes, the outlook for future performance will change. If
the forecast for natural gas remains low while the outlook for oil improves, it
will shape the reduction of natural gas assets or operations and allocate
profits from oil to new energy solutions. In short, it is a living model that
helps RDS interpret changes in the market and measure those against a timeline.
What makes a transformation plan important is that it allows RDS to maximize
revenue from existing operations yet simultaneously update its plan for the
future.
Recommendation
#2: Workforce Analysis and Action plan
It is not a new idea that
companies want to reduce labor inefficiencies. With 83,000 employees,
identifying redundancies and waste is challenging and necessary. This is a top-down
look at the organization. It is a corporate initiative that should be
coordinated with each subsidiary. The goals are as follows.
Identify
subsidiaries with the lowest return per labor hour. Sometimes this is called
sales per labor hour, but in a production environment might be measured by
hourly throughput. The goal of this exercise is both financial and operational.
The financial component assesses the monetary value of labor within the
subsidiary or division. The operational component looks at overhead labor,
which represents the amount of management required to operate. This may be used
as a comparative tool. Companies in similar industries may operate with
different sizes of overhead groups. The goal is to identify which operations in
a division may be top-heavy.
Perform
job analysis and workload monitoring to identify redundancies. Evaluate
subsidiaries based on the distribution of work and job roles. A host of metrics
may be used for this, but practically speaking, data is aggregated to compare
vertical and horizontal differentiation between subsidiaries. The idea is to
look for inconsistencies that may identify inefficiencies. Job analysis also evaluates roles in reporting
channels between the subsidiaries and the corporate office. The job analysis
component is necessary because job titles are often convoluted, and the role of
the employee is not always clear.
Identify
subsidiaries in the weakest markets. Develop a plan to transition employees to
new projects or offer severance. This is purely a preventative tactical measure
that allows the company to create a roadmap for personnel management based on
market predictions. The only way to accomplish this effectively is by use of
the transformation plan which first ranks subsidiaries and industry by
performance. This ranking and analysis inform any plan to scale back certain
operations.
Recommendation
#3: Map strategic M&A path with a
global perspective
RDS should implement a
strategic merger and acquisition plan to shift into the global electric power
market. This recommendation has three benefits. It capitalizes on RDS’s
existing expertise operating subsidiaries. It allows RDS to leverage the power
of small company thinking. Finally, it allows them to shift into a new market
without bearing the brunt of trying to keep pace with developing technologies.
The research described
earlier in the text indicates that electricity will be a primary power source
of the future. Alternatives to oil are gaining traction. These alternatives may
be outside of the scope of Shell’s core competencies. Shell is in a financial position that allows
them to acquire or merge with companies that are operating on the edge of new
technological developments in alternative power. One of Shell’s current
strategic goals is to increase free cash flow through divestiture and operating
efficiency. This new cash may be allocated, in part, to investment in Shell’s
future as a producer and supplier of alternative energy.
Implementation
As previously mentioned,
the recommendations are complimentary. This three-pronged approach is designed
to practically position Shell for future surprises as well as provide the
flexibility to adjust to a future decline in oil consumption. Each of these
recommendations deserves a deep analytical report of its own. The following
section looks at the practical application of the recommendations and assesses
potential challenges. At most, it is a cursory view of the implementation
process and provides a rough timeline.
Transformation Plan
Feasibility
and Relevance
Developing a
transformation plan requires a considerable amount of data. Once the data is
sorted and organized, it must be complemented with insights to be converted to
useful analytics. The following list is an example of the
sort of data that would facilitate this plan.
Asset
performance
Corporate
Level – how does each subsidiary perform?
Subsidiary
Level – what are the return on assets for the subsidiary?
Financial
Position
Subsidiary
financial health
Divisions
within subsidiaries
Market
Supply
What
is the forecast for oil production?
What
is the standard deviation for changes in forecast production?
Market
Demand
What
is the short term demand for oil and natural gas?
What
is the demand for electrical power?
What
is the expected rate of adoption of electric?
Rate
of change
How
quickly is alternative energy technology changing?
How
does the cost of alternatives compare with the cost of oil and gas?
Shell already organizes much
of this information using their Agile technology, which compiles and categorizes
data based on programmed rules (Riggins, 2017).
Implications
for Managers
Managers at all levels of
the organization may take part in organizing the data for reports. Because the
transformation plan is a roadmap, it may not result in immediate action that is
passed back down to managers.
For the plan to be useful,
it needs to be more granular than just high-level reporting. An example may
help explain this. Shell has 43,000 fueling stations. If RDS evaluated their
high-level performance overall, the data might not be useful in the context of facilitating
change. A high-level report might not indicate regional or market-specific factors
requiring change. Subsidiary executives and regional managers of Shell stations
may be assigned the task of breaking down the market by geography or
performance. Then these performance areas may be examined for causal
relationships with the factors of demand, supply, and alternative solutions.
The importance of this is that poor performance in (say) California might be
related to increasing demand for electric while poor performance in another
area may be related to a completely different set of factors. This type of
granular analysis will rely heavily on contributions from different management
tiers within the corporation.
This may sound like a
daunting task. However, most companies are already familiar with or monitoring these
sorts of reports as an ongoing management practice. Many good executives
already know their market well.
That makes this
transformation plan more practical than it might seem on its face. The plan is
about taking this data and using it to create a map or at least a contingency
plan to guide RDS in the long term. Finally, the transformation plan is built
on a rolling five-year time frame. Financial modeling past five years is
notoriously problematic, so as the model gets further out, more inaccuracy should
be expected.
Workforce Analysis and Action plan
Feasibility
and Relevance
Workforce management is
not a new concept for companies. However, Shell’s complex matrix business
structure requires parallel reporting up vertical channels. The size of Shell’s
global operations makes it likely to have pockets of inefficiencies and
redundant roles. Most mature companies are already tracking their productivity
against their labor hours. This is one-way companies decide how to allocate
capital to different business divisions. Less profitable divisions with less
opportunity will likely get less new capital for expansion unless there is a
perspective that doing so will change the situation.
Say, for example, Shell fueling
stations have a low sales per working hour compared to a Shell refinery in
Nigeria. This does not mean that RDS will sell the fueling stations. However,
it does help Shell identify where and how to allocate resources to focus on
profitability. When used in conjunction with the transformation plan, Shell has
actionable information. For example, Shell may use its analysis of the fueling
stations to evaluate where to invest in electric charging stations. In the same
analysis, Shell may identify overpopulation of stations in certain cities and
sell some of the stations to streamline or free up capital to invest in the
conversion to electric.
Implications
for Managers
Managers at higher levels
in the organization might compare how management-heavy subsidiaries are and
then make a case as to why that is or why it should change. For example, maybe
Shell stations in India have 35% more overhead staff than Shell stations in the
United States. Whether or not Shell should reduce overhead positions then
depends on further analysis. Maybe the geographical distances or multiple
languages in India justify this added cost, but maybe they do not. Maybe India
is overstaffed because labor is cheaper and no one is paying close attention to
the situation.
Middle managers may be
called on to perform this job analysis at a location or regional level and will
likely assist in defining positional roles and explaining various operational
functions. These individuals likely have a much better understanding of day to
day operations, and because of this are invaluable in identifying redundancies and
overstaffing.
These managers may also
assist in workload monitoring. This may be performed qualitatively or
quantitatively. Sometimes it is as simple as interviewing employees to ask them
what they do in a day, or visiting offices and asking questions. Other
companies take a more quantitative approach and monitor computer usage and
employee location. This is a more invasive tactic that may lead to morale
issues, but it will help the company define where they can reduce operating costs.
Map a strategic M&A path with a
global perspective
Feasibility
and Relevance
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
are one way a company can enter a new market that might otherwise take years to
enter. M&A also allows companies to make use of new technologies outside of
their sphere of expertise. The other benefit worth mentioning is that buying
the right company can increase profitability.
This is an ideal way for
Shell to position itself for a decline in oil consumption. By selecting the
right partners, Shell can protect profits while expanding its potential. This
approach is aligned with Shell’s current plan to divest itself of
underperforming, high-cost assets. Currently, these funds are being used to pay
dividends, buy back shares, and increase free cash flow. Going forward, Shell
may use this cash to fund investment in alternative energy partners. Finally,
acquisitions of smaller businesses allow Shell to leverage the power of small
company thinking (Daft, 2016). This means that smaller companies serving niches
in new industries can give Shell nuance and flexibility to respond to market
changes.
Implications
for Managers
Most M&A strategy
will be driven at an executive level. At the top management level, M&A
involves the following executives.
CEO
to set the direction and overall strategy
Finance:
CFO and Controller to assess the financial impact and value of the acquisition
Legal:
General Counsel to look at legal factors and regulatory considerations
Human
Resources: CHRO to evaluate personnel requirements and integration during the
merger
Business
Division: Currently, alternative energy acquisitions fall under the Integrated
Gas & New Energy division, but this may impact other divisions as well.
This case study does not
go so far as to indicate which companies Shell should consider. However, it
does seek to identify practical strategies that align with Shell’s current
financial and operational position. Also, this recommendation is based on
common sense in that it allows Shell to focus on what it does best, while simultaneously
tapping into new alternative energy technology.
Conclusion
This document is an
accumulation of research on the Royal Dutch Shell company. It is intended to be
a review of previous research. A problem was presented and addressed giving consideration
to Shell’s competencies and market strength. The three-pronged plan is designed
to allow Shell to maximize revenues from current operations while seeking to stay
relevant for a future of alternative energy solutions.
Daft, R. (2016).
Organizational Theory and Design (12th ed.) . Cincinnati, OH: South- Western
College Publishing. ISBN-10: 1285866347 | ISBN-13: 978-1-285-86634-5
Royal Dutch Shell is a
vertically integrated oil and gas company with 83,000 employees operating more
than 52 subsidiaries in 70 countries. RDS uses a global matrix organizational
structure based on seven executive branches that support four business
divisions. These divisions serve as the top level of a reporting structure for Shell’s
subsidiaries. Subsidiary companies are used to meet the specific geographic and
operational demands of Shell’s diverse business operations. Each subsidiary has
an executive structure that loosely matches that of the corporate structure.
The model has the advantage of streamlining the flow of information to the
appropriate business divisions but requires each subsidiary to report up
multiple channels. This will be discussed later, in more detail. The following
case is made that RDS’s current organizational complexity and configuration are
an appropriate match for their business environment.
1:
How complex is your organization internally? Place your organization on the
following chart. Defend your responses and reference sources.
Overview
RDS is a global company
operating in 70 countries with more than 52 subsidiaries. The 2018 SEC 20-F
report reveals over 1000 registered businesses under the RDS group (“Annual
Report,” 2019). Of these, only about 52 are common brand-recognized businesses.
Some well-known names in the US are Jiffy Lube, Pennzoil, Raizen, and the BG
Group (“Shell Subsidiaries,” n.d.).
Shell uses a global matrix
structure to aggregate information from their subsidiaries to the proper
business units within the executive group at RDS corporate headquarters. RDS
organizes these units by market and industry: Upstream Markets, Downstream
Markets, Projects & Technology, and Integrated Gas & New Energy.
As shown in the organizational
chart, an executive branch represents each of these market segments.
Additionally, Shell has three executive divisions that support the function of
the overall business: Finance, Legal, and Human Resources.
Horizontal
differentiation
Beneath the seven executive
divisions, Shell has further subdivisions (also shown in the org chart). For
example, John Abbot, the Downstream Director, has three direct reports (also
executives) that support his role. These are Trading and Supply, HR Downstream,
and Retail. Each executive division has two layers except for the Legal
Director. From experience, this does not mean the legal director does not have
a support staff, rather that he (Donny Ching) will liaise directly with the
general counsel in each subsidiary. This
layering of the executive team adds vertical as well as horizontal differentiation.
At the highest corporate
level, Shell consolidates broad operational responsibilities into comparatively
few categories which might suggest a low degree of specialization. However, the
argument should be made for high specialization in this case because of the intent
of the overall design. The corporate divisions are categorized by competency or
industry. Additionally, the 3rd layer in the executive team has more
specific responsibilities within these categories. In this third layer, the
business units are subdivided into 24 positions representing more granular
competencies relating to the business unit.
This results in a high level
of specialization, which indicates subsidiaries likely have multiple reporting
channels. For example, the CEO from Subsidiary
A may report to the CFO, Upstream Director, and Projects and Technology
Director at RDS Corporate. The organizational chart indicates that it would not
be unusual for the CEO of a subsidiary to have at least five upstream reporting
channels. Using task specialization in this way facilitates business continuity
within a given competency. It also
likely gives the executive team a more accurate composite picture of the
overall performance of the company in the given area.
I should note here that
after extensive research and a phone call to RDS media relations, I was unable
to determine if there are regional representatives for different geographic
locations ie. Director of Vietnam. Because the organizational structure is
divided the way it is, there may be an additional layer between the subsidiaries
and the executive team. If so, it is likely a supporting role to the competency
of a specific division rather than a region ie. Director of Downstream Markets-
Vietnam.
Vertical
Differentiation
RDS’s org structure is high
in vertical differentiation. This may be more out of necessity than design. The
size of the company requires that very broad data sets from a variety of
locations and operations be channeled into simpler consolidated data sets. This
aggregation is imperative for financial reporting, tax preparation, and
securities and exchange reporting.
The vertical layers of RDS
listed below are also reflected in the organizational
chart. The assumption here is that subsidiaries are large enough to support
a full executive team which is common in the subsidiary model. The
organizational chart shows a representative sample of the organizational
structure of a subsidiary with its executive team reporting to Shell
headquarters.
Vertical
Layers
Board
of Directors
RDS
CEO
Executive
Team
Executive
Support Team (RDS Directors)
Division
Directors (Downstream, Upstream, New Energies, Projects and Information)
Subsidiary CEO
Subsidiary Exec Team (CFO,
CHRO, CIO, General Counsel)
Subsidiary Directors (Likely
competency-based and multiple positions ie. Director of Sales, Director of
Purchasing and Supply, Director of Safety)
If we assess RDS corporate as
a separate company, we might say they have a very consolidated hierarchy.
However, a laborer in a subsidiary would have a minimum of 9 layers (likely
many more) to reach an executive level at the corporate office. When looking at
the composite structure of the organization, it appears to have high vertical
differentiation.
Typology and Configuration
Symmetric
(typology)
RDS’s global matrix
structure is high in both vertical and horizontal differentiation which indicates the organizational complexity
is symmetric. There is a high degree of parallel processing along vertical
reporting channels. As information moves up the organizational chart, it is
aggregated into larger, simplified data sets to be used at a macro level. Conversely,
moving down from the top, processes are broken into subunits still reporting
along vertical channels but broadening through the use of subsidiaries.
Matrix
(configuration)
An organizational matrix
combines elements of both functional and divisional approaches (Daft, 2016).
This means tasks are allocated by specialization or skill along with the
ability of groups or subsidiaries to operate as a self-contained business unit
(Daft, 2016). This is useful in companies with global operations that are
subject to varied cultural and regulatory demands. The matrix approach seeks to
provide overarching cohesion as well as operational flexibility.
#3:
Does your organization’s complexity fit its structural configuration?
The global matrix structure
is an effective way of managing large companies with multi-faceted operations
because it allows a cohesive corporate strategy to dictate broad operational
goals while smaller divisions tailor their approach to match the environment
(Daft, 2016). This is an appropriate configuration for the symmetric organization
typology. This is also appropriate for the turbulent environment in which Shell
operates.
#4:
Is there “fit” across the organization’s components? What do we know now about
how our organization aligns across these categories? What would make them more
effective? Should your organization change its structure based on its
complexity?
Previous research on the
environmental complexity in which RDS operates indicates there is an
appropriate match between the turbulent environment, symmetric organizational
complexity, and matrix configuration. As such, no change in the structure is
required or recommended. Here is a short
recap on the previous findings that built a case for the environmental
complexity analysis.
“Shell operates in a turbulent industry. RDS is
actively streamlining its operation to strengthen its financial position for
future turbulence while investing in new oil exploration and alternative energy
sources. Maximizing highly-profitable assets acts as a buffer against
volatility and helps fund future investment in sustainable energy. This
approach is both efficient and effective. Shell is also wisely leveraging the
power of technology to increase the speed of decision making in an uncertain
environment (DiGloria, 2019)”
While it appears that Shell
is effectively matching is structure to the environment, this does not mean
that Shell will not have headwinds that will affect its structure. Shell’s
issues will likely stem from volatility in gas prices, weak sales demand, and
global economic slowdown. Particularly, the natural gas division which has been
a primary revenue source in the past is continuing to decline from oversupply
(Gilblom, 2019). We can see some of
these factors at work in the most recent earnings report. The structure is
currently working well in that even though Shell missed earnings in July, they
increased cash flow (Gilblom, 2019). This suggests that the current
configuration allows them to maneuver somewhat effectively even in an economic
slowdown.
Review
In conclusion, it is not
likely that Shell will be able to consolidate information any further at its
top levels. However, it is conceivable in the very long term outlook of say 20
years, that Shell will further restructure its subsidiaries and shift into new
alternative energy markets. This will likely not change the macro shape of
their organizational structure. As such, RDS will increase efficiency by making
micro-changes to how tasks are handled and more specifically to the layers of
middle management where redundancies most often occur.
Daft, R. (2016). Organizational Theory and Design
(12th ed.) . Cincinnati, OH: South- Western College Publishing. ISBN-10:
1285866347 | ISBN-13: 978-1-285-86634-5
The following research examines
the environmental complexity of the oil and gas industry in relation to Royal Dutch
Shell (RDS, Shell). This industry is highly complex, highly competitive, and
subject to volatility. RDS has expertly navigated this environment for over 100
years. There is no indication in the financial data that this will not be the
case going forward. Even more promising is the continued willingness of Shell
to embrace innovation through the use of technology and the pursuit of
alternative energy solutions.
How
turbulent is your company’s environment, and how well do you believe that they
adapt to it?
The oil and gas industry is
affected by many factors that have the potential to make the environment very
turbulent. The primary contributors are:
Competition:
industry competition, alternative energy solutions
Supply
and demand: demand for oil, suppliers attempts to gain market share
The longevity and size of Royal
Dutch Shell are indicative of its ability to navigate this turbulence, and willingness
to innovate to stay relevant. RDS has accomplished this through sound financial
planning and business strategy.
#1
The
following list breaks down the elements of the environment that affect the sustainability
of RDS’s operations.
Industry (Competitors, industry
size, competitiveness, related industries)
Primary Competitors
British Petroleum
Exxon
Saudi Aramco
Acron
Sinopec
China Petro
Industry Size
Experts estimate the size of the oil and gas production industry is between $75 and $87.5 trillion, which is 2-3% of the global economy (“What Percentage of,” 2018).
Oil and gas refining adds an additional $7 trillion in production value (“Oil Refining Market,” 2018)
Competitiveness
RDS operates in a highly competitive market with competition from three types of oil and gas entities: integrated, private, and national.
Integrated oil and gas companies (IOC’s) operate in the upstream oil market and operations include discovery, production, refining, and distribution (Business Dictionary, n.d.). Shell is an IOC and ranks second in size behind Sinopec China.
Private oil and gas firms specializing in exploration and production.
National oil companies control 90% of proven oil reserves and have state backing. Nationally owned companies add the complication that they may operate by political motives rather than purely economic.
Saudi Aramco
National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC)
China National Petroleum Company
Petroleos Venezuela
Rosneft (Russia).
Green initiatives (discussed later) increase competition by offering consumers alternative energy sources.
Related Industries
The oil industry has a large subset of process industries as well as laterally connected markets. The subset includes refining, chemical processing, fracking, extracting, transportation, and resale. The connected industries include large municipal power utilities, all branches of armed forces (national and international), and governments that supply security or collect royalties.
Raw
Materials (Suppliers, manufacturers, real
estate, services)
Suppliers and Manufacturers
IOC’s
engage in the discovery, production, refining, and distribution of their own
supply. While this gives RDS the ability to control both upstream and
downstream processes, this also means that RDS must closely monitor the return
on its assets (“Shell to divest,” 2019).
RDS
is actively pursuing a dominant position as a supplier of alternative power
with investments in wind farms and alternative energy production (“Electricity,” 2019).
RDS
is taking a similar approach to the IOC model in the electricity sector. The
long term strategy is to position itself to control upstream (production) and
downstream (distribution and storage) of electrical power (“Electricity,” 2019)
Real Estate
Shell
owns developed and undeveloped land in excess of 98 million acres.
Shell
maintains interest in 35 oil refineries around the globe. Some are wholly owned
through subsidiaries, and some are shared with governments or other local
companies operating as partners.
Human
Resources (Labor
market, employment agencies, universities, unions)
Labor market
Shell
offers jobs in over 70 countries (“About Us,” 2019). The Shell careers webpage
reflects a keen interested in recruiting and retaining top talent from a
variety of fields: engineering, IT, sales, business development, analytics, and
management (“Careers,” n.d.). Shell employs a workforce of over 81,000 people. It
is the only oil company to make the Forbes top 100 places to work (Kauflin, 2018).
Employment agencies
RDS
manages hiring and onboarding in-house. They have a comprehensive recruitment
and onboarding program. Shell’s website allows applicants to take competency
exams and put themselves into a hiring pool without applying for a specific job
(“Careers,” n.d.).
Universities
Shell
has special opportunities for MBA and Ph.D. graduates that will fast track them
into leadership positions. Shell hosts MBA
recruitment events and offers a robust internship program (“Careers,” n.d.).
Unions
Shell’s
US operations make use of labor unions though it is not a requirement of
employment. One of the primary unions shell works with in the US is the United
Steel Workers Union (Hancock, 2019).
Performance note: RDS is trading
near 52-week low with a buy rating from industry analysts.
Banks
RDS
uses a subsidiary Shell International Finance to finance and issue its bond
debt. Currently, RDS has $49.75bn in outstanding Bonds with maturity dates
ranging from 2019 – 2045 (Shell, 2019).
Credit
Rating (Shell, 2019)
Short term A-1+
Long term AA- with a stable
outlook
Private investors
RDS
does not fund Capex with private debt
Market (Customers, clients,
potential users):
Customers, Clients, and
Potential Users
Industrial. Shell has a presence in
900 airports in 60 counties to supply fuel to the aviation industry. Shell is
the worlds leading supplier of bitumen which is used in road construction,
roofing, and polymers and supplies over 1600 customers in 28 countries (“Bitumen,”
2019).
Private. Shell has 43,000 fueling
stations in 70 countries. These are often convenience and gas locations that
service consumers. RDS will use these locations as part of their strategic
conversion to electric power stations (LeSage, 2017)
Government. Shell supplies JP-8 and
JP-5 which is US and UK grade jet fuel to both militaries respectively. Shell
also partners with some small governments in oil production areas. One example
of this is the partnership with the government of Brunei. Often RDS will set up
foreign subsidiaries which are more suited to navigating and complying with
local laws.
Technology (Techniques of
productions, computers, information technology, e-commerce)
Techniques of production
Shell
uses conventional well extraction methods for oil and natural gas reservoirs. In
shale or tight rock developments, Shell uses extraction by fracturing otherwise
known as fracking. This method involves breaking rock by pumping in a water and
sand solution. This releases the gas from the rock. Shell is a fuel refiner
that refines products such as unleaded gasoline, diesel, heating oil, liquified
natural gas (LNG), and military-grade jet fuel. Shell also is a producer of
bitumen which is used in industrial applications such as polymer manufacturing
and asphalt.
Computers & Information
Technology
Shell
is very active in the information technology space, using agile technology to
drive operations as well as management practices. Building on the Scrum
platform, in 2017 Shell began an aggressive initiative to use DevOps to
increase the speed of decision making and the decrease production time. In
plain terms, Shell is changing its approach to internal software development to
make it leaner and deliver faster results (Riggins, 2017).
This
approach allows for greater adaptability in software development. Previously
50% of the software development team was IT consulting, and with the new agile
DevOps approach, that number is 5% (Riggins, 2017).
E-commerce
Shell
forayed into e-commerce with two websites in the year 2000. The goal was to
connect B2B and B2C customers in the travel industry. The sites were to contain
travel information, travel goods, and an interactive map of fueling stations.
The website shellgeostar.com is no longer operational and simply includes a
landing page with links to route planners (“Shell creates two,” 2000).
Shell
operates in over 70 countries. As such there is rarely a micro-economic factor that
they do not feel in some way. Conversely their size insulates them from some of
the smaller economic trends having any real impact. Instead RDS must monitor GDP
in larger economies such as the US and Eurozone as well as China. It must also
watch for changes in worldwide demand as well as how international political
tensions may affect production levels (macrotrends, n.d.).
Unemployment rate
Unemployment
rates vary by country, and as a result, Shell may be affected by different
economic factors in each region it operates in. RDS has been reducing its stake
in underperforming assets. Along with this, Shell’s workforce has shrunk from
93,000 in 2013 to 82,000 in 2018. This is the result of lower oil prices and an
abundance of supply (macrotrends, n.d.).
Inflation rate
Because
Shell operates in so many geographies, it deals with a wide variety of
currencies and exchange rates. Wages and the cost of production are reflected
as a factor of the economy in the region. Shell uses the US dollar when forecasting
the price of oil and as such, will monitor inflation the US.
Business Growth
Shell’s
financial performance has been steady but not based on a growth outlook.
Rather, Shell has been streamlining operations to increase free cash flow and
position itself for an increasingly competitive energy market (“Strategy,”
2019).
Government
(City, state, and federal laws, regulations, taxes)
City and State Laws
RDS’s international presence is managed through diversified compliance to local city and state ordinances. This is usually done through the use of subsidiaries which are business entities wholly subject to laws and regulations where they operate.
Federal Regulation
Shell is subject to Federal laws that vary by region. In the US, the EPA regulates and sets policy for environmental impacts. The Interstate Oil and Gas Commission sets policy for drilling and production. There are also government regulations outlined in the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and the Safe Drinking Water Act (“EPA proposes,” 2019). These were designed to regulate different portions of the oil and gas industry. Additionally, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulates pipelines and transportation (FERC, n.d.).
In less developed locations such as Nigeria, these sorts of measures don’t exist as explicitly as they do in the US (Mandler, 2018). In these cases, Shell’s internal policies, as well as Nigerian laws, will govern. Global groups such as International Association of Oil & Gas Producers work with local governments to form policy (IOGP, n.d.)
Taxes
In 2018 Shell paid over $64.1bn to governments (“Payments to,” 2019).
$10.bn income tax
$5.8bn in royalties
$48bn in sales tax
Sociocultural
(Age, values, beliefs, education, religion, work ethic, consumer and green
movements)
Age, Values, Beliefs,
Education, and Religion
RDS’s
highly diversified business operations are driven by the development of high
functioning, diverse employees. Shell maintains a diversity and inclusion
policy, generous benefits for maternity leave, and accommodation for disability
(“Diversity and Inclusion,”n.d.). Named in the Forbes top 100 places to work,
Shell actively recruits graduates from top schools in addition to offering internship
programs (“Careers,” n.d.).
Consumer and Green
movements
The
trend towards alternative energy and emissions reduction is included in the
Shell business strategy. Shell’s stated goal is to have reduced its carbon
footprint by 50% in 2050 (“Strategy,” 2018).
Additionally, Shell is positioning itself to be a producer and distributor of
electricity and is actively investing in charging stations and alternative
power production (Ball, 2018).
International
(Competition from and acquisition by foreign firms, entry into overseas
markets, foreign customs, regulations, exchange rate)
Competition from and
acquisition by foreign firms
Shell
bears no purchase risk due to its size and dominance in the industry. In 2018,
Forbes ranked RDS as the worlds most powerful oil company (Poole, 2018). While
there is no risk of a buyout, RDS operates in a highly competitive market
driven by global supply and demand.
Entry into overseas markets
and foreign customs
As
previously mentioned Shell has entered international markets through subsidiaries
which aid cultural insights and regulation compliance specific to the region.
Regulations
Shell
is bound by the rules of the region where it operates (see previous regulation
section).
#2
Is
the organization internationally diversified? If yes, where are they currently
(regional or by country, could be broken down by product distribution or brick
and mortar locations, etc…? Who are their major competitors? What markets
should they expand to?
Countries
Shell
operates in 70 countries. Their current strategy is not geographical expansion,
rather financial efficiency and alternative energy production.
Shell
is currently engaged in exploration in locations where it already has a
business interest: The North Slope of Alaska, Albania, Bulgaria (“Shell
Investors,”2018)
Upstream and Downstream
Markets
Upstream
Production (“Shell Investors,” 2017)
Oil
wells 11,454
Gas
wells 4,266
Downstream
Refining and Chemical Manufacturing: 35 locations worldwide (“Manufacturing
locations,” n.d.)
Downstream
Fuel Stations: 43,000 in 70 countries (Oller,
2018).
Competitors
Integrated
oil and gas companies (IOC’s) are companies operating in the upstream oil
market and operations include discovery, production, refining, and distribution
(business dictionary, n.d.). Major competitors in the space are Exxon Mobile,
Chevron, British Petroleum, and Conoco Phillips.
National
oil companies control 90% of proven oil reserves and have state backing. Saudi
Aramco, National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), China National Petroleum Company,
Petroleos Venezuela, Rosneft (Russia). Nationally owned companies add the
complication that they may operate by political motives rather than purely economic.
#3
How
complex and unpredictable is the organization’s environment?
Complexity: RDS operates in a highly complex business environment.
Global demand directly affects RDS revenues. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the demand for oil to increase in 2020 by 1.4 million barrels per day over 2019. RDS expects a peak in demand somewhere between 2020 and 2040. These projections are based on the expectation of real global GDP (+2.6%) and US Dollar value (-1.6%)(EIA, 2019).
Global supply is another complicated matter that is the result of price, competition, and political events. Given the same assumptions as the demand calculation, the EIA predicts a commensurate increase in global supply of 1.5 million barrels per day (EIA, 2019).
The trend toward alternative energy also complicates the oil production industry. RDS must balance its long term strategy for alternative power with the need to maximize revenue from oil-producing assets in the short term.
Interdependencies: While the oil companies compete, they also rely on each other to help maintain stability. For example, if a price war begins then no one profits. Because of this, companies will often produce below capacity to preserve price stability. Any changes motivated by competition or politics can rapidly alter the amount of oil these companies supply to the market.
Unpredictability
Commodities and Futures markets lend some stability to commodities producers. They can use futures to lock in sales and also trade positions as a hedge against volatility. Also the futures market is a composite picture of the collective projection about future prices which aids in forecasting.
Security Threats. In unstable regions, security threats pose an unpredictable variable for RDS. In Nigeria, Shell spends $6.97bn on government security for its operations (“Shell Pays Nigerian,” n.d.). An example of this unpredictability is the recent drone attack on Saudi Arabia that sent oil prices skyrocketing (Shepher, Raval, & Dempsy, 2019).
Political Environment and National Interests. The current political environment (nationally and abroad) is unpredictable. The US-China trade tensions have caused the most significant drop in energy prices in four years (Rapier, 2019). Additionally, OPEC has historically struggled with the US for control of oil prices. Now, both parties have leverage to reduce or increase supply. Controlling output has been used in the past to manipulate oil prices (Sharma, 2019).
#4
Does
your organization’s strategies and goals fit their environment?
The research suggests that
RDS maintains strategies and goals that fit their business environment. As
previously discussed, Shell operates in a turbulent industry. RDS is actively
streamlining its operation to strengthen its financial position for future
turbulence while investing in new oil exploration and alternative energy
sources. Maximizing highly-profitable assets acts as a buffer against volatility
and helps fund future investment in sustainable energy. This approach is both
efficient and effective. Shell is also wisely leveraging the power of
technology to increase the speed of decision making in an uncertain
environment.
#5
Did
your organization align across the environment, strategy type, and
organizational goals?
RDS’s goals and strategies
are aligned with the environment it operates in. Continued success will depend
on how well they can adapt to future market changes, and if they will
successfully position themselves as a dominant producer of electricity.
Where
do you think the organization should go now? Do you predict changes in their
environment?
As previously discussed,
the organization should continue to use its financial strategy to streamline
operations and increase cash flow which will fuel investment in alternative
fuels. While the environment is unpredictable, the demand forecast for oil is
likely accurate as reliance on oil isn’t something that appears to be changing anytime
soon. The primary factors to monitor are the political environment,
specifically, trade wars as well as the price of oil.
The data suggest a very positive outlook for Royal Dutch Shell (RDS).
Their financial position appears strong enough to withstand continued
volatility in the energy market. Consolidation strategies combined with the divestiture
of low return assets should increase operational and economic efficiency. RDS
should exploit opportunities for electric power production and reduce its
carbon footprint following their aggressive timeline.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Financial Stability Industry Experience Innovation
Size (reduces flexibility) Stale Assets
Opportunities
Threats
Alternative energy Carbon Footprint Asset restructuring
Peak Oil Demand (oil oversupply) LNG and Crude Prices Volatility
Strengths
Financial Stability: Shell’s
market valuation of $42.3bn is currently the highest of any oil-producer
(Mussprat, 2019). A net income of $24bn (2018) is second-best in the industry
(Mussprat, 2019). In the last four years, Shell has met its commitment to
increase cash flow by $10bn from operations and new investments (“Strategy,”
2019). Shell has set a target from 2021-2025 of $125bn in shareholder
distributions in the form of dividends and share buybacks. They also plan to increase
free cash flow to $35bn by 2025 (“Strategy,” 2019). The execution of these
goals should help the company maintain a strong financial position.
Industry Experience: Shell began in 1833 in a small antique shop in London. Shell was
named when founder Marcus Samuels started importing exotic shells from the Far
East for resale (“Company History,” n.d.). This is how Shell first dabbled in
import/export transportation. Marcus Samuels passed the company to his sons, who
began to experiment with the transport of bulk oil using steamships. The
company owned the first oil tanker to ever pass through the Suez Canal. Now 185
years later, Shell continues to be a dominant player in the oil and transport
industry. They have a hand in every downstream market from extraction to
refining, to transport, to resale.
Innovation: One of the tenets of the
organizational culture has been innovation. This is what has allowed Shell to
last 185 years which is 165 years longer than the average life of an S&P
500 company (Sheetz, 2017). Shell developed the first oil tankers to carry bulk
fuel in the hull of the ship rather than barrels (“Company History,” n.d.).
Today, Shell continues to invest in innovation and has a division entirely
devoted to alternative power. Alternative energy is an opportunity that is
discussed later in this text.
Weaknesses
Size: Shell’s size limits its rapid
flexibility to changing dynamics. RDS employs over 81,000 people (Strategy,
2019). It has a global presence that includes refineries, chemical processing,
and 43,000 branded fueling stations in 80 countries (Oller, 2018). Size is an
advantage but also a weakness. For example, it is not easy to find buyers for large
underperforming assets. If oil demand declines precipitously in the next twenty
years, it would be near impossible for Shell to unwind its revenue reliance on
oil that quickly.
Stale Assets: Shell’s
assets represent a weakness as well as an opportunity. Shell has been actively
attempting to divest itself of high cost/low return assets which are degrading
its profit margins. They plan an additional divestiture of $10bn in the next
two years (“Shell to divest,” 2018). It is important to note that they are selling
these assets at a loss. This can be expected to continue as the price of
natural gas remains low for the foreseeable future. How well Shell can manage
these unprofitable assets and what price they can get will continue to be a
potential point of weakness for the company.
Opportunities
Alternative Energy: Shell is well aware that the energy industry is shifting its
focus to clean alternatives to oil. This is an opportunity for future growth.
To that end Shell recently took part in a 50/50 joint venture to develop wind
power off the coast of New Jersey (“Electricity,” 2019). Additionally Shell has
business interest in five operational onshore wind farms in the US and one in
Europe. Shell is also strategizing to become a dominant player in the
electricity industry (“EDF Renewables,” 2018). To do this, Shell is planning to
develop what they are calling the “integrated power system” (“EDF Renewables,”
2018), in which Shell attempts to operate at every touchpoint of power
production and consumption markets. This involves production elements such as
wind, solar, and natural gas as well as storage and distribution to end-users. In
2017 Shell signed a deal with Ionity to provide 500 charging points across
Europe by 2020 (“EDF Renewables,” 2018). These activities are a step in the right
direction, and Shell should continue to develop these new markets.
Carbon Footprint: RDS has set
forth an aggressive emissions reduction strategy to reduce its carbon footprint
by 50% in 2050 (“Royal
Dutch Shell,” 2018). To facilitate this, Shell
will incentivize managers and directors by making 10% of their bonus contingent
on how well they reduce greenhouse gas emission (“Royal Dutch Shell,” 2018).
Asset Restructuring: Between 2016 and 2018, Shell divested themselves of $30bn in
underperforming assets. Most notably stakes in Canadian oil sands and the UK
North Sea (“Shell to Divest,” 2019). Going forward, Shell plans to allocate $25bn
to share buybacks. Beyond this, Shell has a new two-year initiative to shed an additional
$10bn in assets. This asset restructuring provides Shell with the opportunity
to reposition itself to focus on higher-margin operations.
Threats
Peak Oil Demand: The concept of peak oil originated as a factor of production. Namely the point at which the oil reserves of the world would reach a maximum rate of extraction after which it would decline, and the world would slowly run out of oil. With the introduction of new drilling and fracking technology, those theories had to be dismantled. The concept is now one of consumption demand (Lynch, 2018). Shell expects this demand to peak between 2020 and 2040. It is encouraging that Shell is aware of this, but it still remains unseen how well they can truly adapt to this change and how well they will be positioned for alternative energy solutions. Also, the variability of future demand is unknown, and the majority of Shell’s operations still rely on oil production and distribution. Any rapid change would be too challenging for Shell to manage.
Natural Gas and Crude Price: Analysts expect natural gas prices to remain low for the foreseeable future. While Shell has been divesting itself of some natural gas assets, low prices set against the high cost of production may affect profitability as well the price Shell can get when attempting to recoup losses on natural gas fields (Orland, 2019). Despite its dominant financial position and substantial 2018 profits, Shell’s Q2 profit surprised to the downside on lower oil prices and weaker demand (Agnitori, 2019). They missed analyst’s expectations by 25% (Agnitori, 2019). This highlights the connection between the market price environment and profitability.
Volatility: Both the discussion of demand and energy price fluctuation, point to the broader topic of volatility. In other to understand the impact of volatility it is important to know how the refining process is affected by price changes. Refineries are most profitable in stable conditions. This is because they operate with a flow process. Fuel is continually bought for refining, processed, and sold as a refined product. In a perfect market you could always purchase at one price and sell at a higher price. However it is not uncommon for an oil refiner to buy at one cost only to have the price of fuel drop thereby compressing or eliminating profits. Because refineries use a continual process, they don’t shut off when the purchase price of oil spikes. Further complicating this is onsite storage. If a refinery is holding unsold refined fuel and the price drops, it may be forced to sell the fuel at a loss. This is a vulnerability inherent in the oil production and refining industry. While Shell has a proven track record of managing this business very well, volatility is a constant threat controlled by outside forces such as news events, regional instability, and competitive tactics.
Conclusion
Shell is a viable company with strong earnings and financial
resources to continue operating. Shell is proactively managing underperforming
assets. The unknown variable is decreasing demand and excess supply.
Complicating this further, alternative energy and carbon reduction initiatives
will likely drive increased regulatory oversight and force oil companies to
invest in alternative revenue streams.
What does the organization do? What
is its major work activity?
Royal Dutch Shell is a publicly-traded
company headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands. Shell is engaged in the
exploration, development, production, refining, and marketing of oil and
natural gas. They also manufacture chemicals (Royal Dutch Shell, 2019).
Exploration
Shell engages in exploration
worldwide for oil and natural gas in conventional oil reserves and other tight
rock, shale, and coal basins. Exploration focuses on supply development as well
as bitumen extraction for conversion to synthetic oils (Royal Dutch Shell,
2019).
Operations
Shell’s international operations
include refining fuels, processing chemicals, and a global transportation
system to facilitate distribution. Products that are processed and sold include
gasoline, diesel, heating oil, aviation fuel, marine fuel, LNG, lubrications
(engine oils), bitumen, and sulfur (Royal Dutch Shell, 2019).
Alternative
Energy Solutions
Shell processes ethanol
from sugar cane through a joint venture in Brazil. They also pursue the development
of low emission energy solutions such as hydrogen, wind, and solar (Royal Dutch
Shell, 2019).
Operational
Strategy
Shells operational
strategy is to integrate complementary systems and processes to increase
efficiency (Royal Dutch Shell, 2019). This efficiency allows Shell to allocate
resource to research and development. Shell prides itself in effective
financial and operational management that has allowed it to navigate the
competitive and sometimes volatile energy market. More recently, Shell has been
positioning itself for a peak in oil production and demand between 2020 and
2040 (Ball, 2018). The prepare for this, Shell has been selling assets that
have a high cost of production) and repositioning itself as a supplier of
electricity while the demand for oil is still increasing (Ball, 2018). This
willingness to alter its business model shows awareness and humility about a
changing market.
Based on your research, how does the
org score on efficiency?
Efficiency Rank
Shell is a high performer
in its industry and based on the following method has a weighted scoring of 3.8
out of 5 on the efficiency scale.
Method
To develop an accurate
efficiency ranking, criteria were established to measure Shell against
competitors in the industry. Each criterion received a weight. The weight is
based on the measurement’s value in the context of efficiency.
Criteria
Profitability:
How profitable is the company compared to its peers? Both gross revenue and net
profit were considered. Because profitability is vital to efficiency, it is
given a 40% weight in the scoring.
Results
Shell ranks fourth in
revenue ($322bn) behind competitors Sinopec, Saudi Aramco, and China National
Petroleum. However, Shell’s 2018 net income ($24bn) ranks second behind Saudi
Aramco (Mussprat, 2019). Shell scored a 4 out of 5 on the profitability scale.
Environmental
impact: Efficiency in this context measures how well Shell
can minimize environmental impact at a sustainable level of expense. Shell is
now considered to be one of the most environmentally responsible oil companies
alongside BP (Nastu, 2010). Shell seems to be interested in taking part in
global emissions reductions, but it is unclear what that will look like in the
future (Ball, 2018). Because of the nature of the industry and the high cost
associated with the development of alternative energy, I gave environmental
impact weight of 20%.
Results
Shell is attempting to
position itself as an environmentally and socially conscious company. It is
actively channeling resources to the development of alternative energy and has
future plans to position the company as a producer of electricity (Ball, 2018).
Considering the industry and the expectation, Shell scored a 3 out of 5 on the
environmental impact scale.
Going
concern: This perspective evaluates the solvency of the
company, and in this case, consideration is given to future value and market
headwinds. Because the demand and price of oil have such a profound impact on
operations, this was weighted at 40%.
Results
Shell is looking ahead
and attempting to position itself for oil to reach peak demand in the next 20
years. They are investing in solar and alternative energy while collecting oil profits
in an environment where demand is still increasing. Additionally, Shell is
shedding high-cost production assets such as its 7.25bn stake in the Canadian
oil sands that it feels will weigh it down in the future (Ball, 2018). This
suggests that the company will be positioned well for continued volatility and
change. Shell scored a 4 out of 5 on the going concern scale.
Based
on your research, how does the organization score on effectiveness?
Effectiveness
Rank
Shell is a high performer in its industry, and based on the following method received a weighted scoring of 4.0 out of 5 on the effectiveness scale.
Method
To develop an accurate
effectiveness ranking, criteria were established to measure Shell against
competitors in the industry. Each criterion received a weight. The weight is
based on the measurement’s value in the context of effectiveness.
Criteria
Company
valuation
Company valuation is a
measure of a company’s worth and considers, but is not solely determined by,
revenue and profits. Other factors affecting the assessment are retained
earnings and market capitalization. A company valuation indicates how effective
they have been over a more extended period as well as expectations about future
performance. As such, this receives 40% weight in the scoring.
Results
While not the most
profitable company in its industry, Shell’s market valuation is $42.3bn, which
is currently the highest of any oil-producing competitor (Mussprat, 2019). As a
result, Shell scored a 5 out of 5 on the valuation scale.
Growth
Growth assesses how well the
company is growing compared to peers. Also factored in this assessment is the
growth potential of the total market environment. In this case, global oil
demand, supply, and advances in alternative energy are external factors that
are somewhat beyond Shell’s control but will impact their operational effectiveness. Because this measurement is so heavily
influenced by external factors, it is given a weight of 20%.
Results
Shell’s market value grew
by 7% over that last year. However, competitors PetroChina, Sinopec, and BP,
Petronas, and ADNOC all had growth above 13%. Shell did beat Chevron, which
lost value. Shell received a 2 out of 5 on the growth scale.
Corporate
Social Responsibility
This measurement is
designed to reflect how effectively Shell manages its brand and considers
internal and external stakeholders. Environmentally friendly practices and
green energy initiatives are also taken into account. Because the company is a
prominent operator in the industry, this ranking is weighted at 40%.
Results
For consistency, the scale
in this measurement is one to five. However, considering the industry, and how
much CSR is determined by the impact on society at large, it was challenging to
place any oil companies in the comparison at a ranking of 5. This is not because
of any negative sentiment. Rather, it is still unclear what role oil companies
will play in the future as we approach peak demand and day to day operations
pose constant potential environmental threats such as spills. As previously
mentioned, Shell and BP are companies that have positioned their brands for
change. Shell is planning to adapt to the industry demand for reduced carbon
emissions and increased reliance on electric power. Environmental watchdogs do
credit Shell for leading CSR initiatives for the industry (Nastu, 2010). Specifically, Shell is credited with
incorporating innovation into their processes and planning (Nastu, 2010). Shell receives the highest score allowed in
this category which is a 4 out of 5.
Where
would the organization like to be in the graph? Why? How do you know?
The cumulative research
we have discussed as well as Shell’s explicit change management strategy
position Shell well for the future. Ideally, Shell would like to rank 5 out of
5 on all metrics and operate at optimal efficiency and effectiveness. However,
this is an unrealistic expectation, as optimization doesn’t measure possibility
so much as it measures improvement. In other words, perfect optimization exists
in only fictitious business scenario’s, which is why there are constant
improvement and innovation. Also, some of the criteria may conflict with each
other as they reach optimal levels.
That said, I think Shell
would realistically like to score a (4.4, 4.0). This is accomplished by
improving the growth measure of effectiveness to a 4 (highlighted below)
through a strategic transition into electricity production as oil demand peaks.
This transition also seeks to reduce the environmental impact, which is a
measure of efficiency (highlighted below). Research indicates that these are
areas where Shell may feasibly improve.
Does
the current positioning of the organization correspond to its vision and
mission statements?
Mission
“Shell’s
purpose is to power progress together with more and cleaner energy solutions.
We believe that rising standards of living for a growing global population are
likely to continue to drive demand for energy, including oil and gas, for years
to come. At the same time, technology changes, and the need to tackle climate
change means there is a transition underway to a lower-carbon, multisource
energy system (Royal Dutch Shell, 2019).”
Vision
“To make a difference through our
people, a team of dedicated professionals who value our customers, deliver on
our promises, and contribute to sustainable development (Royal
Dutch Shell, 2019).”
Research indicates that
Shell is one of the most responsible and future-oriented oil companies
operating today. The company acknowledges the changing environment of energy
production and consumption and is actively restructuring to facilitate this
change. Additionally, Shell is actively supporting green initiatives in line
with the vision of sustainable development. By all indications, Shell’s
positioning and strategy are aligned with its vision and mission.
If you are back for more, you must be a glutton for punishment. In the
last episode, I shared a business idea with you. In case you forgot, it is a
small startup called ERBO, which is an online peer-to-peer equipment rental
platform. Today we are going to talk about growing the business, but first, I
will provide some context.
While I would never call myself an expert, years of work experience have
exposed me to many adages and biases that I think are potential weaknesses.
Some of my favorite useless phrases are “let’s take this offline”(sure) and “it’s a no brainer” (uh-oh). Another pitfall
of business planning is assuming that the most significant danger is failure.
So many businesses are obsessed with avoiding failure. That is all well and
good, but it neglects another problem: growth. Business success increases
demand, and I am surprised at how many people have no plan to scale their
business. My rule of thumb is this: if you can’t scale it, don’t do it. Many
people are tied to moderately successful projects that require their full time
and attention to infinity. Where is the fun in that?
Without digressing into one of those Tim Ferris “four-hour workweek” speeches that get people frothy about a model that is ridiculously hard to replicate (yes, most of us have to work really damn hard); let’s get back to ERBO. Can we scale it? Let’s find out by attempting to redesign ERBO according to the following criteria.
Criteria:
ERBO added
a new product or service line.
ERBO grew
to become an international organization.
ERBO bought
and merged with another organization (with not so similar products or
services).
To meet these criteria, I have crafted an interconnected plan, where
each tactic complements a broader strategy. First, we will mix up the order of
things.
ERBO Merger
As the company has grown, ERBO has discovered one of the most significant challenges to entering a new market is exposure and variety of selection for the customer. The idea of independent P2P rentals may not be familiar in new markets, and selection may be limited if few items are listed on the platform. To address this problem and generate new revenue, ERBO has merged with Workforce, a Chinese manufacturer of small equipment such as pressure washers, paint sprayers, sanders, and small tractors. The merger will provide Workforce with exposure to the US market. In turn, ERBO will gain exposure to China and supply for new product lines. While manufacturing is a complete divergence from the original business model (transaction facilitator), ERBO expects that this will generate margins much higher than its current fee-based strategy. This merger is a direct merger where ERBO (acquirer) purchases Workforce (target) and assumes its assets and liabilities.
ERBO New Product Line
A primary benefit of the merger is ERBO will now be an equipment seller. This will serve two purposes. First, the platform will give buyers access to high-quality industrial equipment that is reasonably priced because the wholesaler/broker layer is removed. Additionally, private label selling yields higher profit margins than conventional retail. The second component will be the sale of used rental equipment that still has good value for the customer (this is not dissimilar from the car rental market). ERBO will now have supply to sell and rent their own equipment, thereby also helping self-develop their new markets.
ERBO International Expansion
Both the merger and the introduction of a retail sales division positions ERBO well for international expansion. ERBO will take a two-pronged approach. First they will sell and rent equipment at outlets previously owned by Workforce. Additionally the ERBO platform will expand into China to attempt to take part in the rapid growth of e-commerce in rural and urban areas (Harsano, 2018). ERBO management understands that the Chinese market is large, diverse, and hard to target without an intimate understanding of consumer preferences. As such, ERBO will rely on its international division to initially populate the site with equipment for sale or rent as well as guide marketing initiatives.
The Trump Trade Wars
This blog is in no way designed to be political, but in case you didn’t
see it coming, this strategy is also about skirting the import tariffs. As ERBO
will be its own manufacturer in China, it can avoid trade tariffs which are a
source of turmoil and volatility in the market (Martin, 2018). This will serve
two purposes. It will allow ERBO to offer excellent quality-to-price value to
its customers, and it will preserve profit margins which are essential for the
long term success of ERBO. It will also serve to insulate VRBO from trade
volatility related to political events.
What about the people?
So by now, you might be wondering how an organic-flat four-person startup
is going to manage all of this. Shown
below are a series of management only organizational charts. They document
structural changes that have and will allow ERBO to achieve and maintain
continued growth.
Startup Structure (this is where it all began)
National Expansion
As ERBO expanded nationally, greater responsibility was placed on departments to develop initiatives and take actions that helped us manage increasing demand.
International Merger
Here is the business structure of ERBO-Workforce following the direct
merger. We used horizontal absorption (which is something I made up) and added
one layer of hierarchy. Horizontal absorption is a term I use to represent an acquisition
that is in a different vertical market, subject to corporate goals but with
autonomy to operate in line with its business. The idea is to allow Workforce
to maintain its structural integrity and current leadership in the
manufacturing sector alongside ERBO’s existing software initiatives. However,
the added layer repositions executives to help drive overall strategy based on
ERBO’s mission and vision.
Key Takeaways
I know this is a long post, but hopefully it conveyed some idea of how
ERBO might undergo radical structural changes to adapt to growth and new markets.
Writing this prompted some fun questions that I don’t yet have the answer for. Is
this type of expansion too extreme? What cultural issues become impasses in an
international merger? Would current executive leadership be able to guide an
international division in a new vertical market? Let me know your thoughts in
the comments below.
This is the sort of question that gets me bracing for sarcastic
remarks. Here goes mine: I have a few
dream jobs, but most of them fall into the category of nightmares.
I am, of course, joking. The data is overwhelming that we
humans love to be productive and useful (Lickerman, 2010). Behavioral
psychologists concur that a sense of purpose and meaning is essential to
maintain sanity and a sense of well being (Taylor, 2013). These human tendencies and motivations may
provide the template by which a dream job which may be defined: doing something
that aligns well with our abilities and values.
That said, I find my desires gravitate towards ownership and a business
model that can be scaled without the limitation of my time or ability. My ideal
business is one that allows freedom and is not fixed geographically. In that
vein, I will share an idea that I have been contemplating for over a year. I
trust that I won’t have to sue you later for stealing it. In this case, the model, rather than the
method is what I find appealing.
ERBO (Equipment Rentals By Owner)
This business leverages the success of platforms such as
Priceline and VRBO into the equipment rental market. Currently, the equipment
rental model is antiquated. Customers are limited to what local rental
companies provide and are subject to relatively high prices considering a rental
to purchase ratio. I have run some rough payoff calculations on equipment by
dividing the retail price by the daily rental cost. On average, this is about 90
rental days. For example, a $40,000 man lift that rents for $450 per day will
be paid off after 89 days. Of course, this isn’t the actual payoff time as
there are other costs such as maintenance and overhead and the equipment is
likely financed. However, the existing model is limiting and offers consumers
few choices.
ERBO is a platform for peer-to-peer rentals which connects
individuals who own equipment with people who want to rent it. For example,
imagine that John has an old bobcat he bought at an auction and uses for small
projects around his house. Most of the time, it sits doing nothing. This
website will connect people like John with people like Jim, who has a weekend
landscaping project and needs a bobcat. What is more, it will provide renters
with immediate competitive market pricing. The website will generate profit by
taking a percentage of the rental fee in addition to offering CPM (impressions)
or CPC (click-through) ad space.
Operating Goals
Goal #1: Create a
transparent market that is favorable for both buyers and sellers
Measurement: A
simple, easy to use platform that offers variety and price competition which
creates transparency for the consumer.
Goal #2: Create a
platform with built-in financial and liability protection for transactions.
Measurement:
Facilitate payments and security deposits on a platform that is a neutral party
to the transaction. This includes liability insurance considerations and
waivers that legally bind and protect both parties.
Goal #3: Build
local success (profitability and growth) before scaling. This is a time-bound
risk prevention measure.
Measurement: Revenue
must exceed the cost of the operation in a local market before the service
expands to new markets. This does not preclude the organization from obtaining
outside funding, only requires that cash flow be positive before further
expansion. Once the business proves to be sustainable beyond the 3-5 year time
frame, more risk is acceptable.
Goal #4: Reinvent
the rental market through technology which increases the selection and speed of
the transaction
Measurement: The
platform will facilitate transactions in a target time of 10 minutes from start
to finish. Currently, I estimate that between traveling to existing rental facilities
and signing documents, it takes up to 1.5 hours to complete a rental
transaction.
Goal #5: Create a
trustworthy platform with privacy protection for users
Measurement: Maintain
site SSL certificates and maintain current privacy policies.
To keep overhead low, the company may start with a founder
and one to three software developers. The software will be fast prototyped by
creating a simple marketable model and introducing new features subsequently in
a live beta test setting. This allows the product to get to market more
quickly. The group will work as a team rather than a corporation. Sometime
during the development phase, a marketing and customer relations manager will
be needed to help define the brand and create media content and advertising.
Review
Whether or not I could actually develop this idea into a
profitable business is somewhat ancillary. The core idea I want to relay is
that a dream job will only be fulfilling if it matches our abilities and
values. In my case, I prefer freedom and scalability. I get satisfaction from knowing something can
grow without me staring at it twenty-four hours a day. What is your dream job
and does it align with your skills and values? Let me know in the comments below.
It has occurred to me on more than one occasion that I may be too old for all this school stuff. The problem is, I love learning.
I am in the final semester of the MBA program at UAF. Currently I am employed in Fairbanks, Alaska as a Finance and IT Coordinator which is one of those confusing titles a financial analyst receives when they are promoted in a small town.
In addition to work and school, I own an LLC with my wife which I launched to augment her home business. We have focused our efforts as a 3rd party seller on the Amazon platform and were delighted to pass six figures in sales in the first full year of operation. We have experienced 30+ percent growth in the two subsequent years since. Additionally we have a few rentals and hope to acquire more as time permits and the market behaves.
It might seem like this takes all my time but in truth my favorite thing to do is spend time with my son. I am an assistant coach in the Eclipse Soccer Academy and spend a few nights a week enjoying watching him play and learn.
Attending UAF has been a truly enriching experience and part of me (not my wallet) is sad to see it come to an end.